A Changing World Population
Significant shifts are already evident. Not too long ago, children in the Netherlands were seen as economic assets, pension guarantees, or even religious absolutions. In other parts of the world, this is still the case. The average number of children per family in the Netherlands has dropped from 4.5 in 1900 to just 1.6 today. This decline is the main driver of population aging. Japan, with an even lower birth rate of 1.3 children per family, shows where this can lead. If trends continue, Japan’s population—already shaped by much lower immigration than Europe—will drop from 125 million today to just over 90 million by 2050. By then, there will be one working-age Japanese person for every retiree or child. Projections suggest the population could shrink to 64 million by 2100 or shortly thereafter—half of today’s level.
It’s plausible that the rest of the world will follow this trend, with similar consequences. However, the varying speeds of demographic change across regions will cause significant shifts—almost resembling mass migrations. By 2060, an estimated 35% of the Dutch population will be of non-Dutch origin, up from 25% today. This shift is inevitable and doesn’t need to be feared—it’s simply a result of global development. A diverse society offers many advantages, provided we invest in its success rather than hinder its progress.
Disruption on a Societal Scale
The developments described above will profoundly disrupt society. Current demographic models, political debates, and TV discussions already struggle to provide meaningful insights. They often base their projections on incorrect short-term population figures, focusing on just one generation. Whether this disruption ultimately benefits or harms humanity depends on perspective. The human species as we know it will cease to exist—biologically and technologically, we are rapidly evolving—and so will projections based on today’s humanity.
Politicians often speak of “preparing the Earth for future generations,” but these are hollow phrases. Medical and technological advancements will transform humanity within a single generation. The generations that follow will be unrecognizable by today’s standards and may need to be understood in cycles spanning centuries rather than 15 to 25 years. The real question is which segments of humanity—on both national and global scales—will adapt first, and whether the rest will be pulled along or left behind.
Rethinking Work and Income
Work and income, as we know them, are economic constructs that will need to be reimagined. They may even cease to exist altogether. Discussions and experiments surrounding a universal basic income frequently resurface, reflecting this potential shift. Once we complete the energy transition and learn to heat and power our homes almost for free using solar, wind, and water energy supplemented by clean nuclear power, enormous financial resources will be freed up—resources that are currently almost literally being burned. These funds could either be saved or reinvested in innovation, especially to protect our own economic interests. A fully automated circular economy may eventually leave room only for services related to care and entertainment.
Of course, policymakers argue that such changes can’t happen all at once. They’re too costly and too mentally challenging for people to process quickly. While this is true, a faster pace wouldn’t hurt. The Dutch and global political landscapes currently resemble a store selling car wheels—each unique, yet all round with a rim and tire. But when fitted to a car, they don’t align properly and don’t provide a smooth ride.
A Vision for the Future
It is shocking that the Netherlands has no population target for its future. We set ambitious CO2 reduction goals for 2050, yet no objectives for the primary driver of emissions: the number of people living here. As a result, the government chases fluctuating statistics and extrapolations year after year. This leads to inconsistent housing policies—one year we’ve “built enough,” and the next we suddenly need 1.5 million more homes. As a society, we avoid confronting the true vision of the future, as it’s seen as too grim, too uncertain, and too unpopular to discuss. Scientists are left to speculate, and everyone else then forms an opinion about their findings.
Ultimately, the question isn’t whether we should prioritize or hinder any specific age or population group. It’s about defining how humanity wishes to exist on this planet, what privileges we grant ourselves, and which consequences we’re willing to accept—for ourselves and others, both locally and globally, in the present and the future. This is the crux of the debates on television and at the ballot box. These discussions will determine how historians judge the behavior of Generations X, Y (Millennials), and Z (Zoomers), who currently dominate the political and corporate spheres. Together, they will decide whether there is a valuable world left after 2050.
Unfortunately, media portray a less-than-hopeful image. Indifferent, anti-scientific, and self-centered populists incite hyper-nationalistic behavior in their electorates. On the other side, scientists and entrepreneurs stay narrowly focused on their fields, unwilling to see or address the larger impending changes. In the middle, we find Dutch celebrities—experts in their fields of art, science, literature, or business—offering opinions on everything else. Entertaining, perhaps, but rarely grounded in substance.
Generation Alpha: A New Beginning?
The generational alphabet has run out of letters. We’ve started over with Generation Alpha. Let’s hope they initiate a new kind of Genesis by 2050. Perhaps we should skip a few letters and call them Generation G—Generation Genesis. After all, they will likely live for over a century.
Sources:
(1) https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2020/51/prognose-bevolking-blijft-komende-50-jaar-groeien
(2) https://www.nibud.nl/consumenten/wat-kost-uw-kind/
(3) https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telomeer
(4) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near
(5) https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/achtergrond/2018/51/prognose-bevolking-naar-migratieachtergrond
(6) https://www.ewmagazine.nl/nederland/achtergrond/2020/05/geen-tijd-om-kinderen-te-krijgen-over-corona-en-de-bevolkingsgroei-757038/
(7) https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/21/human-reproductive-cloning-curious-incident-of-the-dog-in-the-night-time/
(8) https://www.volksgezondheidenzorg.info/ranglijst/ranglijst-doodsoorzaken-op-basis-van-sterfte
(9) https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/visualisaties/dashboard-bevolking/bevolkingsgroei/geboren-kinderen
(10) https://www.uchiyama.nl/ngjapankortdemogr.htm